Supercomm looks to build on telecom momentum

NETWORK WORLD NEWSLETTER: OPTICAL NETWORKING
06/06/05

Dear networking.world@gmail.com,

In this issue:

* Supercomm preview
* Links related to Optical Networking
* Featured reader resource
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Today's focus: Supercomm looks to build on telecom momentum

By Jim Duffy and Tim Greene

Supercomm organizers this year hope to build on the telecom
revival evident at last year's conference.

This year's show will see more significant announcements from
key vendors - Cisco, Lucent, Juniper, Sun, Avici, Riverstone
Networks and others - as well as important technology
demonstrations intended to prove that next-generation services
are ready for prime time.

Supercomm 2004 saw sharp hikes in attendance, exhibitors and
exhibition space from 2003. Riding that momentum , this year's
show will see exhibitor count and exhibition space up slightly
from last year, while attendance is expected to be flat: 30,000
attendees set to peruse the offerings of 667 exhibitors - 67
more than last year - laid out on 309,000 square feet of real
estate, up 9,000 from 2004.

On the enterprise business side, the white-hot service is
Ethernet as a replacement for leased lines. For consumers, it's
IPTV coming to a fiber near you as telcos and cable companies
jockey for your remote.

Infonetics and IDC expect worldwide Ethernet services to grow at
a compound annual rate better than 50% over the next four or
five years. IDC says it will grow from $3 billion in 2003 to $19
billion in 2007; and Infonetics pegs growth to $22 billion in
2009 from $2.5 billion in 2004.

Ethernet also will be used to carry video into homes as IPTV.
Telcos are embarking on multibillion-dollar fiber buildouts to
carry high-speed interactive TV into homes. This will
necessitate multimillion-dollar investments in Gigabit passive
optical network equipment that is Ethernet friendly.

"The two are in many ways related," says Thomas Nolle, president
of consultancy CIMI. "If the RBOCs could lower the cost of
Ethernet substantially by taking advantage of the same
infrastructure as is used for IPTV to get the economies of
scale, then they could lower the price of Ethernet enough to
make it really attractive and still earn as much profit on it as
they would have on SONET."

Market tracker MRG says the number of IPTV subscribers will grow
from 2 million in 2004 to 25 million in 2008. While those
numbers are not staggering, the revenue opportunity they
represent is more impressive: Subscriber revenue of $635 million
in 2004 will grow to $7.2 billion in 2008, according to MRG.

Service providers are spending more overall this year, as well.
North American service providers' capital expenditures are
projected to increase 5% to $61 billion in 2005, according to
Infonetics Research.

Much of the spending is targeted at IP/MPLS routers and Ethernet
switches for the Ethernet/IPTV opportunity. Vendors are
responding accordingly.

Juniper, for example, plans to introduce a router at Supercomm
designed for high-density Ethernet aggregation to deliver
multimedia broadband services, such as IPTV, to a large number
of subscribers. Scaling from 100G to 320G bit/sec of capacity,
the E320 supports up to 128,000 subscribers. Juniper also is
rolling out a High-Density Ethernet (HDE) line module that
provides eight ports of Gigabit Ethernet per slot and an "ATM
plus Ethernet" line module designed to help ease migration from
ATM access to next-generation Ethernet access networks.

Riverstone also is looking to assist service providers in
migrating from ATM to Ethernet. The company is enhancing its
15008 Ethernet Edge Router with packet-over-SONET and ATM
interfaces to let service providers extend Ethernet services
over legacy networks, and vice versa.

The new modules include an eight-port PoS line card that
supports multi-rate OC3c/12c/48c on any port, to a maximum
capacity of 2xOC-48. They also include a four-port
packet-over-SONET/ATM card supporting dual-mode operation and
multi-rate OC3c/12c/48c on any port, up to 1xOC-48.

Riverstone also is set to unveil a 96-port 10/100M bit/sec
Ethernet card, and announce support for Layer2/3 VPNs and IPv6
on the 15008.

Turin Networks is scheduled to unveil a "next-generation
Ethernet" module for its Traverse SONET transport systems
targeted at IPTV and Carrier Ethernet service applications. The
NGE supports four Gigabit Ethernet links and 16 10/100M bit/sec
Ethernet ports, and is designed to provide improved service
resiliency and protection.

Key Ethernet/IPTV demonstrations are expected to include the
Metro Ethernet Forum's display of its Carrier Ethernet
specifications for Ethernet scalability, protection, "hard" QoS
guarantees, TDM support and service management; and the Optical
Internetworking Forum's demonstration of a distributed optical
control plane interoperating among seven service providers for
Ethernet-over-SONET/SDH adaptation and automated provisioning.
_______________________________________________________________
To contact: Jim Duffy and Tim Greene

Jim Duffy is managing editor of Network World's service provider
equipment coverage
<http://www.networkworld.com/topics/service-providers.html>. He
has 18 years of high-tech reporting experience, including over
12 years at Network World. Previously, he was senior editor at
Computer Systems News and associate editor/reporter at
Electronic News and MIS Week. He can be reached at
<mailto:jduffy@nww.com>.

Tim Greene is a senior editor at Network World, covering virtual
private networking gear, remote access, core switching and local
phone companies. You can reach him at <mailto:tgreene@nww.com>.
_______________________________________________________________
This newsletter is sponsored by Dupont
Reduce Fire Safety Risk in Your Network!

Concerns are rising about the growing number of combustible
cables present in buildings required to service the
ever-increasing demands of IT networks. More workstations are
taxing the infrastructure. These concerns are the thrust behind
new "limited combustible" cables that reduce fire safety risk.
Click here for news, a free demo CD and more. Visit DuPont's
Cabling center today!
http://www.fattail.com/redir/redirect.asp?CID=106107
_______________________________________________________________
ARCHIVE LINKS

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http://www.networkworld.com/newsletters/optical/index.html
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